Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210131 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     65.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  19.4  18.0  15.9  20.4  16.8  16.5  19.7  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  36.0  33.0  33.0  36.0  41.0  38.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   3.0  15.0  -8.0   0.0  10.0  33.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  46.0  53.0  61.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       21.5%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        8.3%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        8.2%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        8.2%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       30.9%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%       13.1%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%       16.1%       12.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%       11.5%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h       23.8%       25.9%       24.9%