Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210131 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20     63.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  18.9  18.8  18.7  21.6  16.6  22.4  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  97.7 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  15.0  -8.0 -15.0   8.0  23.0  25.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  41.0  40.0  44.0  47.0  59.0  64.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       11.7%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        4.2%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        4.2%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.2%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       15.3%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        7.2%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        4.2%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        7.2%        4.9%