Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210202 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.00     55.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  18.5  20.0  25.1  19.9  13.1  16.0  14.7  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  30.0  35.0  39.0  52.0  79.0  72.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  40.0  32.0  41.0  56.0  52.0  78.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        8.9%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       16.3%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        4.1%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h       12.0%       11.6%       11.8%
 70kt / 48h        8.3%        8.6%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h       54.9%       39.0%       46.9%