Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210202 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.70     52.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  19.7  18.9  16.9  17.0  21.6  16.9  13.1  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  41.0  46.0  51.0  79.0  85.0  52.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 144.3 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  20.0  37.0  46.0  36.0  65.0  80.0 103.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       12.0%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        3.5%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.1%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.1%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       25.8%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        8.8%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h       19.8%       17.5%       18.6%
 70kt / 48h       15.2%       14.2%       14.7%
 65kt / 72h       48.8%       33.3%       41.1%