Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142021 210122 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  35.0  36.9  46.5  44.8  49.3  53.5  60.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  63.0  56.0  49.0  35.0  21.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 108.6  24.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  52.0  52.0  29.0  16.0  10.0  67.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  70.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   8.0  17.0  15.0  44.0  37.0 142.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        4.8%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.5%       21.4%       16.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%        9.0%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%        9.0%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        6.3%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       14.1%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        4.1%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%