Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142021 210122 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.10    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  36.0  41.7  39.9  49.8  57.8  71.4  82.6  N  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.2 108.6 125.0 125.0 125.0  36.2  17.0  10.8  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  67.0  56.0  54.0  46.0  45.0  38.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  66.0  56.0  54.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -13.0  -7.0  -8.0  18.0  46.0   8.0 114.0  F VF  F  F VU VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%