Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142021 210122 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90    121.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  36.5  30.9  32.4  35.7  46.5  62.3  80.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7 109.4 130.0 130.0 130.0  91.0  32.3  19.6  N  N  F  F  F  N VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  43.0  33.0  29.0  45.0  58.0  27.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  58.0  62.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  52.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -12.0 -13.0 -11.0   1.0   8.0  76.0  65.0  F  F VF  F  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%