Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142021 210122 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.20    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  19.8  22.4  22.1  22.2  35.8  39.5  64.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.2 101.2 120.7 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  11.0  17.0   9.0  42.0  27.0  11.0 -41.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  54.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0 -20.0   6.0  54.0  U  N  N  N  N VF  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%