Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142021 210123 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.50    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  25.0  31.4  31.7  30.0  37.4  43.2  37.9  N  N  U  U  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  51.0  26.0  12.0  51.0  32.0  15.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  71.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  58.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -2.0  -3.0 -11.0  20.0  46.0  37.0  F  F  N  N  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%