Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142021 210123 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.20    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.4  41.1  37.2  39.1  37.6  48.4  40.0  60.2 VU VU  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.8 115.5 137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 117.4 139.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  30.0  53.0  46.0   9.0 -14.0 -45.0 -36.0  U  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  52.0  56.0  59.0  49.0  42.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   9.0  -1.0  17.0  49.0  55.0  34.0  20.0  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%