Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH162021 210131 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90    172.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.6  51.3  56.2  59.2  60.3  56.3  53.6  53.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 131.0 149.0 138.0 106.0  64.0  38.0  22.0  F VF VF VF  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 128.0  98.0  98.0  86.0  87.0  62.0  49.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  80.0  80.0  74.0  70.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -39.0 -58.0 -67.0 -83.0 -88.0 -50.0 -17.0  -8.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        1.1%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%        4.9%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        0.8%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%        0.7%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%        0.7%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%        2.2%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        2.5%        2.6%