Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210131 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90    153.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  27.2  26.0  32.5  38.4  45.6  43.5  47.3  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 102.9  86.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0 112.0 111.0  95.0  85.0  63.0  32.0  34.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  68.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   0.0  -4.0  17.0  19.0   4.0 -19.0  N  N  N  F  U VU  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.8%       22.5%       23.2%
 25kt / 24h       47.8%       64.3%       56.0%
 30kt / 24h       27.7%       57.6%       42.6%
 35kt / 24h       26.4%       57.6%       42.0%
 40kt / 24h       17.9%       53.6%       35.7%
 45kt / 36h       17.0%       48.5%       32.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%       26.6%       16.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%       12.8%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        6.6%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%