Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210131 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    155.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  27.0  38.9  45.3  43.6  41.7  41.6  41.2  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  85.0  84.0  95.0  82.0  43.0  17.0   7.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  97.9  81.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0 103.0  80.0  59.0  78.0  34.0  56.0  12.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  76.0  79.0  73.0  65.0  53.0  42.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -4.0   3.0   5.0   5.0 -17.0 -39.0  N  N  F  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.2%       27.6%       34.9%
 25kt / 24h       53.4%       56.8%       55.1%
 30kt / 24h       37.1%       42.7%       39.9%
 35kt / 24h       31.9%       42.7%       37.3%
 40kt / 24h       17.1%       38.9%       28.0%
 45kt / 36h       25.9%       35.7%       30.8%
 55kt / 36h       11.9%       15.4%       13.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%       11.2%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        5.5%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        3.6%        2.6%