Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210131 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40    157.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  39.0  44.7  43.6  46.3  46.3  45.8  41.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  87.4  79.8  67.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  80.0  59.0  66.0  70.0  17.0  61.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  74.0  76.0  72.0  66.0  64.0  57.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  16.0  18.0 -11.0 -25.0 -46.0  N  N  N  U VU  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        2.5%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        8.4%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        3.6%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        3.6%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        3.4%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%