Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210201 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10    158.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  37.7  41.2  45.6  50.7  42.6  48.4  40.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  73.0  56.0  55.0  22.0   5.5   0.3   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  98.6  71.1  68.0  69.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  51.0  42.0  69.0  36.0  50.0  19.0  17.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  69.0  66.0  57.0  50.0  44.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -11.0  -6.0  -5.0  -7.0 -16.0 -10.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        7.0%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.4%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%