Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210201 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80    160.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  36.4  39.7  48.4  43.8  44.7  43.9  56.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  87.4  79.8  69.3  67.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  76.0  88.0  67.0  33.0  13.0  20.0  22.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  65.0  65.0  56.0  47.0  42.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0   0.0  11.0   3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0   1.0  F  N  U  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        5.1%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%