Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210201 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    162.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.1  40.0  48.4  52.3  42.5  43.6  34.0  44.6 VU  U VU VU VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  62.0  41.0  21.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0  99.3  83.6  69.8  61.0  51.5  47.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  49.0  57.0  47.0  39.0   4.0   9.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  68.0  65.0  61.0  59.0  54.0  54.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -7.0   7.0   0.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.5%        5.3%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%        9.3%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%        4.1%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%        4.1%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%        3.2%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%