Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210201 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    164.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.0  55.0  55.2  50.8  42.7  48.2  57.3  66.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 102.0  88.6  71.2  56.5  62.7  62.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  84.0  23.0  38.0   9.0  22.0  24.0  32.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   6.0  -4.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  12.0  10.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%