Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210202 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    165.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.9  50.8  46.2  41.2  53.3  52.9  72.1  52.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  39.0  26.0  19.0   6.0   4.0   8.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 110.1 101.5  82.7  71.5  86.2  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  58.0  47.0  42.0   6.0  26.0 -24.0  33.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  49.0  44.0  45.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   4.0  21.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%