Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210202 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40    166.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.8  48.7  42.9  48.0  50.6  59.5  62.4  51.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9  99.4  97.4  95.5  88.0  82.7  81.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  47.0  41.0  29.0  -6.0  40.0  11.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  60.0  53.0  52.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  38.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0  18.0  15.0  33.0 VF  N  N  N  N VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%