Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210203 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.90    167.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.3  56.5  54.9  56.4  73.0  54.7  48.2  41.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   7.0   1.5   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.3  79.6  76.5  78.0  87.7  79.6  73.6  72.2  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0   8.0   7.0  30.0 -13.0  17.0 -53.0 -19.0  N  U  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  57.0  53.0  47.0  48.0  U  U  U VU  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   2.0 -12.0  -6.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons