Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.70    166.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.3  51.9  53.0  61.7  63.4  50.0  38.8  41.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.1  81.1  81.1  82.7  76.5  64.2  62.9  61.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  -1.0  17.0  15.0  36.0  96.0  -9.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -9.0 -12.0  -7.0 -16.0 -21.0 -26.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons