Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210203 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.70    166.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.1  53.2  59.8  73.4  52.9  52.4  43.9  50.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.1  81.1  81.1  79.6  65.4  62.9  62.9  59.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  26.0  17.0 -11.0  29.0 -51.0 -15.0 -13.0  U  U  U  U  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0 -17.0 -25.0 -29.0 -21.0 -29.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons