Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172021 210204 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.60    165.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        61.4  72.6  57.1  48.1  48.3  42.2  48.7  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   8.0   5.0   3.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.7 102.7 101.0  94.6  91.5  91.5  94.6  94.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0 -25.0  15.0  36.0 -61.0 -18.0 -11.0  -5.0  U VU  U  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  49.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  40.0  52.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0 -11.0 -12.0  -9.0  -4.0  -6.0 -10.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons