Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210131 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4  11.6  16.1  16.2  15.5  21.1  26.6  41.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 118.6 108.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  12.0   2.0  23.0   4.0  22.0  22.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  50.0  49.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  14.0  45.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       17.0%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        7.9%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        7.9%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        7.9%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       22.2%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        9.0%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%       12.8%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        7.1%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        5.0%        3.3%