Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210201 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.1  12.9  11.4  15.0  17.2  20.6  21.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  16.0  23.0  20.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 120.7 114.4 104.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  47.0  16.0   0.0  -5.0  15.0   8.0  28.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  64.0  59.0  54.0  50.0  45.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -14.0 -17.0 -14.0 -10.0  -9.0  -7.0  -1.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       11.7%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.8%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.8%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        4.8%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       16.3%        9.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        5.4%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        9.5%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        7.4%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.7%       11.3%        9.5%