Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210201 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  13.6  10.8  13.0  14.5  15.0  20.9  20.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 122.9 134.3 135.0 135.0 127.3 116.5 104.8  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  16.0   0.0 -11.0  14.0   5.0  31.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -18.0 -15.0 -13.0  -7.0  -6.0   0.0  -2.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        8.8%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       16.3%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        6.2%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        8.5%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        8.1%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%       11.0%        6.8%