Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210202 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.60    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  15.6  14.6  19.0  19.5  21.4  20.0  33.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  11.0  13.0   9.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 125.1 125.1 127.3 125.1 118.6 112.4 101.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  19.0   7.0   0.0   3.0  -5.0 -38.0 -19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  48.0  44.0  44.0  41.0  42.0  51.0  52.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       11.2%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        4.3%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.3%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       16.9%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        6.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        5.6%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        5.5%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        5.5%        3.5%