Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210203 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.70    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  17.2  25.4  26.5  31.5  35.2  45.9  59.6  F  F  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.3   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 106.6  88.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   7.0  23.0  19.0  19.0  31.0  29.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  46.0  46.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -8.0 -15.0 -14.0 -14.0  -8.0  -3.0   2.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.5%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.8%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%