Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.90    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  20.5  20.5  21.9  30.5  32.6  41.0  39.9  F  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  94.3  97.7  99.4 101.2 101.2  99.4  97.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  23.0  19.0  22.0  26.0  32.0  39.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  47.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0 -12.0 -10.0 -11.0  -9.0  -8.0 -11.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons