Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210203 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.80    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  23.3  28.8  36.0  35.4  51.0  61.4  78.0  F  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  94.3  96.0  96.0  94.3  88.0  74.2  63.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  30.0  21.0  30.0  22.0  45.0  92.0  61.0  U  N  U  N  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  43.0  43.0  42.0  38.0  48.0  46.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  -6.0 -17.0 -29.0 -44.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons