Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210204 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.40    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  32.2  32.7  36.7  47.2  56.1  66.9  70.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   7.0   9.0   8.0   3.3   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  99.8  98.0  98.0  91.0  74.4  56.7  44.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  10.0  19.0  23.0  49.0  58.0  62.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  42.0  41.0  49.0  46.0  46.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0 -12.0 -24.0 -23.0 -19.0  F  F  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons