Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210204 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.60    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  29.8  32.3  38.7  47.7  65.3  76.3  82.3  U  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  96.2  92.7  91.0  81.5  62.0  50.9  41.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   0.0  11.0  24.0  48.0  63.0  71.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  45.0  44.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  41.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -3.0  -8.0  -6.0 -25.0 -55.0 -57.0 -54.0  F  N  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons