Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182021 210205 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.80    112.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.2  48.7  54.5  64.3  73.6  84.0  80.9  73.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.3   1.7   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  86.1  78.6  70.4  54.7  42.6  35.8  23.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  45.0  57.0  44.0  47.0  33.0  29.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  41.0  42.0  40.0  41.0  46.0  50.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -17.0 -31.0 -38.0 -31.0 -41.0 -24.0  18.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons