Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210205 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40     80.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  22.3  20.3  22.0  22.1  24.4  26.1  33.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  47.0  47.0  45.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  77.0  80.0  63.0  59.0  58.0  64.0  50.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   4.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%       15.6%       13.7%
 25kt / 24h       45.2%       64.4%       54.8%
 30kt / 24h       24.7%       54.1%       39.4%
 35kt / 24h       20.8%       54.1%       37.5%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       48.4%       28.3%
 45kt / 36h       27.1%       63.9%       45.5%
 55kt / 36h       14.1%       44.3%       29.2%
 55kt / 48h       25.6%       40.5%       33.1%
 70kt / 48h       10.7%       30.2%       20.5%
 65kt / 72h       23.7%       29.1%       26.4%