Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210206 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60     80.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  20.7  20.2  24.6  25.5  27.0  36.5  41.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  43.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  78.0  55.0  66.0  81.0  62.0  57.0  48.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  61.0  60.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   7.0  10.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.9%       33.2%       41.0%
 25kt / 24h       61.7%       73.1%       67.4%
 30kt / 24h       50.0%       69.8%       59.9%
 35kt / 24h       47.1%       69.8%       58.4%
 40kt / 24h       40.2%       69.5%       54.8%
 45kt / 36h       39.6%       58.4%       49.0%
 55kt / 36h       22.8%       38.9%       30.8%
 55kt / 48h       23.4%       34.8%       29.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%       18.6%       13.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%       10.8%        9.1%