Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210206 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30     79.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  23.7  24.4  25.3  27.4  34.5  41.0  45.9  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  56.0  73.0  81.0  76.0  54.0  69.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  57.0  58.0  65.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   5.0  11.0   7.0   0.0  -3.0 -23.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       68.6%       46.2%       57.4%
 25kt / 24h       70.8%       77.4%       74.1%
 30kt / 24h       69.8%       77.4%       73.6%
 35kt / 24h       69.8%       77.4%       73.6%
 40kt / 24h       69.8%       77.1%       73.4%
 45kt / 36h       42.9%       55.5%       49.2%
 55kt / 36h       24.6%       36.5%       30.6%
 55kt / 48h       15.4%       28.0%       21.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%       11.7%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        6.0%        4.6%