Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210206 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70     79.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  25.5  25.6  19.6  22.8  26.8  24.7  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  93.0  93.0  38.0  50.0  40.0  65.0  64.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  60.0  65.0  69.0  74.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0  10.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       72.3%       43.8%       58.1%
 25kt / 24h       80.4%       77.8%       79.1%
 30kt / 24h       80.4%       77.8%       79.1%
 35kt / 24h       80.4%       77.8%       79.1%
 40kt / 24h       80.4%       77.8%       79.1%
 45kt / 36h       52.9%       54.0%       53.5%
 55kt / 36h       31.1%       35.1%       33.1%
 55kt / 48h       27.2%       36.7%       31.9%
 70kt / 48h       10.6%       14.3%       12.4%
 65kt / 72h       14.9%       13.2%       14.0%