Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210207 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90     79.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  21.1  20.4  22.4  28.4  31.8  30.6  31.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  41.0  38.0  34.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.3  57.3  55.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  42.0  38.0  51.0  42.0  48.0  64.0  64.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  57.0  53.0  56.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.1%       31.3%       48.7%
 25kt / 24h       53.9%       51.5%       52.7%
 30kt / 24h       45.1%       50.5%       47.8%
 35kt / 24h       45.1%       50.5%       47.8%
 40kt / 24h       45.1%       42.5%       43.8%
 45kt / 36h       70.0%       33.1%       51.5%
 55kt / 36h       16.8%       20.2%       18.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%        5.4%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%