Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210207 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80     80.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  29.1  33.2  34.4  44.7  46.2  35.1  45.0  N  N  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  40.0  40.0  41.0  51.0  43.0  33.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  49.6  47.3  40.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  58.0  44.0  87.0  50.0  70.0  31.0  33.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0   6.0   7.0   0.0 -17.0 -17.0 -18.0  U  U  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.8%        6.5%       12.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.1%       10.0%       11.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.3%        6.2%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%        6.2%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%        3.9%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h       33.4%        3.4%       18.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%