Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210207 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60     80.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  32.2  32.8  36.0  45.3  40.1  35.4  47.5  N  U  U  U VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  42.3  35.7  27.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  44.0  87.0  55.0  73.0  64.0  36.0  24.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   6.0   6.0   3.0  -9.0 -16.0 -12.0 -40.0  U  N  N  N  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.9%        1.8%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        3.2%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        1.5%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.5%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%