Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210208 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30     80.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  31.7  28.8  32.3  39.5  40.0  39.1  38.7  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  45.0  52.0  57.0  43.0  32.0  26.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  49.6  45.1  38.6  34.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  67.0  33.0  33.0  63.0  12.0  26.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  62.0  68.0  72.0  74.0  77.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   7.0   6.0   0.0  -2.0  -9.0 -15.0 -15.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        2.1%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%        4.3%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        2.3%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        1.3%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%        1.3%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%