Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210208 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20     82.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  33.3  33.2  35.7  39.4  34.1  33.0  41.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  56.0  53.0  45.0  34.0  30.0  26.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  39.3  37.0  32.3  27.9  21.5  19.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  21.0  53.0  58.0  23.0  27.0  11.0  61.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0 -10.0 -12.0  -8.0 -18.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.0%        5.0%       14.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%        5.0%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        1.4%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%