Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.10     83.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  29.4  31.7  35.0  34.8  35.0  34.1  37.3  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  50.0  41.0  36.0  34.0  30.0  27.0  29.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  29.3  27.0  24.6  20.1  15.7  15.7  15.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  47.0  38.0  38.0  56.0  14.0  22.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -8.0  -4.0  -4.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        0.8%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%