Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210209 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00     83.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  29.0  35.3  37.4  35.6  35.8  35.7  39.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         35.0  34.3  32.0  29.6  25.1  22.9  22.9  22.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  38.0  38.0  35.0  34.0   8.0  36.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0 -12.0  -9.0  -8.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%