Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210209 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30     84.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  34.7  34.2  31.5  31.2  35.3  36.5  35.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  36.0  33.0  32.0  28.0  27.0  30.0  25.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.0  42.0  39.6  37.3  32.9  30.7  32.9  30.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  20.0  33.0  47.0 -10.0  25.0   1.0   1.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  69.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0 -12.0 -11.0  -8.0 -15.0   0.0  -2.0  N  F  F  F  F VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%