Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  34.7  31.9  30.5  32.6  35.9  36.3  36.2  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  31.0  29.0  28.0  29.0  28.0  17.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.6  62.3  60.1  57.9  55.7  55.7  49.4  51.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  58.0  35.0  -4.0  30.0   7.0   3.0 -15.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  59.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -16.0 -21.0 -16.0 -15.0  -9.0  -4.0  -1.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%