Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210210 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  31.6  30.1  33.3  33.5  37.1  37.2  33.4  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         62.3  60.1  60.1  60.1  60.1  57.9  57.9  64.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  35.0  -4.0   9.0  34.0   5.0   6.0  14.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  61.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -21.0 -16.0 -21.0 -16.0 -15.0  -6.0  -5.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        0.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%