Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     85.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  29.1  32.0  33.0  35.5  41.8  36.8  40.9  U  N  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  28.0  27.0  34.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         67.3  67.3  67.3  67.3  65.1  65.1  67.3  69.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  28.0  24.0  37.0   7.0  14.0  24.0  37.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  57.0  50.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0 -10.0 -12.0  -3.0   5.0   7.0  12.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.1%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        3.0%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        0.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%