Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210210 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90     85.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  32.0  33.8  34.1  40.4  40.0  40.4  38.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         65.1  65.1  65.1  65.1  60.7  58.6  60.7  62.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  24.0  37.0  34.0  -1.0  26.0  25.0  45.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -10.0 -11.0 -13.0   0.0   4.0   8.0  16.0  N  F  F VF  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        1.7%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        3.9%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        1.9%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        0.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%